![]() ![]() Jerry Jeudy: new more accurate quarterback, Courtland Sutton coming off injury, in division with some banger offenses. Verdict? Not sold on positive regressionĭJ Chark: Similar to teammate Jones, but did not change teams, coming off minor injury, extremely high aDOT (14.1). Marvin Jones: Changed teams, rookie quarterback, two other strong receivers with which to compete, he is the veteran presence. What I can do with these in fantasy terms is run through a simple logic check: Beyond the five with wide gaps listed above, AJ Green, Nelson Agholor, and Marquise Brown all were top-20 in total air yards but didn’t come anywhere close to sniffing the top-20 in receiving yards. How we can use this for fantasy purposes is by comparing large air yard gainers to lower receiving yard totals, adjust for team context, and look for who might be a positive regression candidate. It has been found in some recent research that average targeted air yards is one of, if not the most, predictive of receiver statistics. Darius Slayton? DJ Chark? Marvin Jones? Jones finished 19th in receiving yards, but the rest all fell in the 30th-50th range for yards. So yes, there is a strong correlation between air yards and receiving yards. The first thing that will slap you in the face is that 10 of these 15 names overlap. Here you see the top-15 in receiving yards for wide receivers last year next to the top-15 leaders in air yards. Let’s take a peek at 2020 numbers with this context to see what stands out. Knowing a receiver’s air yards and, subsequently, his aDOT can give you a quick, back-of-the-envelope look at how a receiver is used. Or, it could mean a smaller number of much longer targets. First, it could be a high volume of short- to intermediate-targets to a receiver. High air yards can mean one of two things. It is meant to be a more holistic look at a receiver’s involvement and route tree than just targets. It is a component of the uber-popular average depth of target (aDOT), serving as the numerator with total targets the denominator. Air yards has blown way past whatever stat is that wannabe Danny Wood.Įssentially air yard measures how far downfield a target was thrown to its intended receiver, whether the pass was caught or not. In terms of New Kids on the Block, it’s popularity now rivals Joey McIntyre or Donnie Wahlberg in fantasy circles. The concept and application of Air Yards was popularized in 2018 by Josh Hermsmeyer, although the concept has been around for a while longer. What in the name of Dungeons and Dragons is air yards? Glad you asked. Well, whenever you get a stat that is as predictive and actionable as air yards, you bet your nerdy ass it matters. ![]() Now we have to dissect and analyze how far a football was thrown in the air no matter whether the ball was caught or not? Does that even really matter? All of us nerds in our basements writing out fantasy football stats on the back of comic books will never be satisfied, will we? It’s not enough that we have receiving yards, target share, snap counts, aDOT, RACR, and WOPR for wide receivers and tight ends. ![]()
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